Health Care Secrets

Opponents of health care reform, including Senator Chuck Grassley, have been fond of citing a study by the Lewin Group (see "Grassley's Talking Points").

Grassley, along with other Republican Congressmen, chose to focus only on the Lewin Group conclusion that 119 million Americans would opt for a public option, if it were available. I suppose they'll need to update their talking points, since the Lewin study has updated their study based on a more recent bill, the American Affordable Health Choices Act of 2009.

For the benefit of Senator Grassley and others, the new talking point is 103.4 million people opting for a public option. It's hard to tell why this is such a terrible thing, and it doesn't explain why so many people would choose a public option, or how much this would cost.

You won't hear the reason from Republican opponents of health care reform, but the latest report has some interesting findings:

"Family premiums under the public plan would on average be about $2,148 less for families (about 20 percent lower) than comparable private insurance."

"Assuming the exchange is opened to all firms, we estimate that the number of uninsured people would be reduced by 32.6 million people."

"Reductions in the cost of covering workers would result in higher net income which would be subject to taxation. The available research indicates that over time these savings would be passed back to workers in the form of increased wage growth, resulting in increased personal income and payroll tax payments."

"We estimate that these tax effects would result in increased federal tax revenues of $48.2 billion over the 2010 through 2019 period if the exchange is open to firms of all sizes."

And my personal favorite:

"If all firms are eligible for the exchange, and therefore the public plan, national spending would increase by about $1.3 billion. Thus, the Act would reduce the number of uninsured by 32.6 million people without significantly increasing national health spending."

No, that's not a typo. It's an increase of $1.3 billion, not $1 trillion. $1.3 billion is the combined cost of individuals (who will see insurance premiums decline) and the government (that will have higher costs dues to subsidies to cover many who are now uninsured). $1.3 billion is about a $100 for each taxpayer.

So we have 32.6 million more people insured, health insurance premiums going down by 20%, and higher income for workers, at a total cost of $100 per taxpayer. Sounds terrible, doesn't it?

As things now stand, we won't be getting a public option for health care, but at least when you get "health insurance reform" instead of the public option proposed in this legislation (which is what's likely to happen), you'll at least know what your missing out on.

You might also ask Senator Grassley and other Republicans who oppose the public option why they don't include this information in their talking points.